Newsom staked his political capital on Democratic gerrymandering

Maps showing California’s 2024 presidential election results by existing congressional districts (L) and California’s 2024 presidential election results by proposed congressional districts (California State Assembly, Statewide Database (SWDB), and Madera County via Ballotpedia)

Newsom staked his political capital on Democratic gerrymandering

I'll search for information about California Proposition 50 to write a comprehensive news story.Based on my research, I'll now write a comprehensive news story about California Proposition 50.

California Voters Poised to Approve Controversial Congressional Redistricting Plan

Proposition 50 polls at 57% support ahead of Tuesday's special election, potentially flipping five Republican seats to Democrats

SACRAMENTO — California voters appear ready to approve Proposition 50, with 57% of likely voters supporting the measure that would authorize temporary changes to the state's congressional district maps, according to recent polling data released ahead of Tuesday's special election.

The measure, officially titled the Election Rigging Response Act, represents one of the most consequential — and controversial — ballot initiatives in California's recent history. If passed, Prop 50 would amend California's Constitution to allow for temporary changes to congressional maps in response to Texas' partisan redistricting, with the new maps remaining in effect until the 2030 U.S. census.

Political Stakes and National Implications

Gov. Gavin Newsom has staked his political future on the proposition, telling supporters "God help us if we lose in California," and warning "We may have enjoyed our last free and fair election". The governor's approval among potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders has doubled from 12% to 25% between June and August, according to polling data.

The measure would redraw California's congressional districts in a way that is likely to yield up to five more seats for Democrats in 2026. California currently holds 52 congressional seats, with Democrats controlling 43 and Republicans holding nine.

Five Republican Seats in the Crosshairs

Five Republican congressmen would see their districts redrawn to include more registered Democrats, putting their re-elections at grave risk next November. The targeted representatives include:

  • Doug LaMalfa (District 1) — Representing Northern California from Sacramento to the Oregon border
  • Kevin Kiley (District 3) — Covering portions of the Sacramento region
  • David Valadao (District 22) — Representing California's Central Valley
  • Ken Calvert (District 41) — Covering Riverside County, including Palm Springs
  • Darrell Issa (District 48) — Representing portions of San Diego County

Under Proposition 50, three of these districts would shift significantly Democratic, with Kamala Harris winning them by margins above 10% in the 2024 presidential election. District 48 would lean Democratic with a margin of 3%, while District 22 would shift four percentage points toward Democrats, though Donald Trump would still have won with a 2% margin.

Campaign Funding and Endorsements

The Yes side has significantly outraised and outspent opponents, pulling in nearly $97 million — more than double the No side's haul of $42 million. Former President Barack Obama has appeared in advertisements supporting the measure, while former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has called it "insane" and "a big mistake."

The campaign has attracted support from prominent Democrats including Senator Alex Padilla, Senator Adam Schiff, and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, along with organizations like Planned Parenthood and the NAACP.

The Texas Trigger

Proposition 50 comes after Texas Republicans, backed by President Donald Trump, advanced their own redistricting plan to lock in a similar advantage for the GOP ahead of the 2026 elections. In August, Gov. Newsom signed legislation triggering the special election after declaring that a deadline had passed for other states to abandon mid-cycle redistricting efforts.

President Trump said of the Texas redistricting, "I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats". Missouri and North Carolina have also pursued similar Republican-favoring redistricting plans.

Legal Challenges and Uncertainties

The measure has faced multiple legal challenges, all of which have been unsuccessful thus far. Republicans filed a legal challenge with the California Supreme Court arguing that Proposition 50 could not properly go on the ballot, but that challenge failed. A federal judge in Texas also dismissed a GOP lawsuit filed by Rep. Ronny Jackson, ruling that he had no standing to sue over another state's election laws.

However, legal experts warn that even if voters pass Proposition 50, court challenges could drag on for years, potentially preventing the new maps from taking effect for the 2026 midterm elections. Potential legal challenges include arguments that the maps violate "one person, one vote" principles by using five-year-old census data.

Impact on Independent Redistricting

California voters approved ballot propositions in 2008 and 2010 that moved the job of drawing district lines from the state legislature to an independent commission made up of Democrats, Republicans and independents, designed to take politics out of drawing district lines. Proposition 50 would temporarily override this system.

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission is divided on the measure, with its leader confirming that seven of the 14 commissioners oppose it, while three support it.

Projected Electoral Impact

Analysis suggests that if every district won by Kamala Harris in 2024 went to a Democratic House candidate, the party would win 47 seats under the proposed plan, compared to 41 under the existing plan. However, experts caution that Democratic-leaning districts don't automatically guarantee Democratic victories, as candidates must still earn voter support.

The plan would replace six overwhelmingly Democratic districts with districts that are still solidly Democratic but with relatively more Republican voters, allowing Democratic voters to help make other districts Democratic.

What's Next

The election is scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025, with the state using Proposition 50's maps for congressional elections starting in 2026 if the measure passes. The state would continue using these maps until the Citizens Redistricting Commission draws new district maps following the 2030 U.S. Census.

Implementation would result in one-time costs to counties of up to a few million dollars statewide and one-time costs to the state of roughly $200,000, which is much less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the state's roughly $220 billion General Fund budget.

As California voters prepare to cast their ballots, the outcome will not only determine the state's congressional representation but could also signal whether other blue states follow California's lead in responding to Republican-led gerrymandering efforts nationwide.

Sources

  1. Kuang, Jeanne. "Gavin Newsom's biggest political test yet is on the ballot next Tuesday." CalMatters, October 28, 2025. https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/10/gavin-newsom-prop-50/

  2. "Majority in California support Prop. 50, according to poll." Mercury News, October 28, 2025. https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/10/28/as-nov-4-nears-poll-shows-majority-support-for-prop-50/

  3. "Proposition 50 and more: Our endorsements for California's Nov. 4 special election." Mercury News, October 24, 2025. https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/10/24/proposition-50-endorsements-california-nov-4-special-election-santa-clara-sales-tax-fligor-trump-newsom/

  4. "California's Prop 50 draws hot emotions across Bay Area as Nov. 4 special election approaches." Mercury News, October 26, 2025. https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/10/26/bay-area-partisans-are-fired-up-over-californias-prop-50-contest-others-not-so-much/

  5. "California 2025 Poll: Voters Poised to Approve Proposition 50 with 57% Support." Emerson College Polling, October 27, 2025. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2025-poll-voters-poised-to-approve-proposition-50-with-57-support/

  6. "2025 California special election: What you should know about Proposition 50." The UCSD Guardian, October 27, 2025. https://ucsdguardian.org/2025/10/27/2025-california-special-election-what-you-should-know-about-proposition-50/

  7. Borenstein, Daniel. "Borenstein: Proposition 50 provides California's only hope to rein in Trump." Mercury News, October 24, 2025. https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/10/24/borenstein-california-proposition-50-trump-newsom-texas-steal-election/

  8. Rogers, Paul. "The five California Republicans who could lose their seats in Congress if Prop 50 passes." Mercury News, October 24, 2025. https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/10/24/the-five-california-republicans-who-could-lose-their-seats-in-congress-if-prop-50-passes/

  9. "What is Prop. 50? Guide to California's 2025 special election." KTVU FOX 2, October 28, 2025. https://www.ktvu.com/election/what-is-prop-50-california-2025-special-election

  10. "Proposition 50 [Ballot]." California Legislative Analyst's Office, August 27, 2025. https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Proposition?number=50&year=2025

  11. "Proposition 50." Official Voter Information Guide, California Secretary of State, 2025. https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/quick-reference-guide/50.htm

  12. "Democrats drew Prop. 50 maps to gain seats, but are they actually less fair?" CalMatters, October 2025. https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/10/proposition-50-communities-split/

  13. "How big a deal is California's Proposition 50?" UCLA Newsroom, October 28, 2025. https://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/how-big-a-deal-is-california-proposition-50-rick-hasen

  14. "YES on Prop 50: FAQ." California Democratic Party, September 15, 2025. https://cadem.org/yes-on-proposition-50-faq/

  15. "California Proposition 50 would shift five Republican-held congressional districts toward Democrats, based on presidential election results." Ballotpedia News, September 23, 2025. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/09/23/california-proposition-50-would-shift-five-republican-held-congressional-districts-toward-democrats-based-on-presidential-election-results/

  16. Newton, Jim. "Opinion | Prop. 50 doesn't guarantee Democrats five seats. They still have to win races across California." CalMatters, October 2025. https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/10/proposition-50-guarantee-democrats-seats/

  17. "Who are the 5 California Republicans who could lose their congressional seat if Prop 50 passes?" KCRA, October 24, 2025. https://www.kcra.com/article/5-california-republicans-could-lose-congressional-seat-prop-50/69115068

  18. "What's at Stake in Proposition 50?" Public Policy Institute of California, October 29, 2025. https://www.ppic.org/blog/whats-at-stake-in-proposition-50/

  19. McGhee, Eric. "How Many Seats Would Democrats Gain under California's Mid-Decade Redistricting Plan?" Public Policy Institute of California, October 2025. https://www.ppic.org/blog/how-many-seats-would-democrats-gain-under-californias-mid-decade-redistricting-plan/

  20. "California Prop 50 explained | Everything you need to know." KCRA, October 9, 2025. https://www.kcra.com/article/california-proposition-50-explained/68888242

  21. Harmon, Rachel. "Democrats are outrunning their opponents on Prop. 50 fundraising." CalMatters, October 2025. https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/10/proposition-50-spending/

  22. "Prop 50 faces potential legal battles if voters approve redistricting measure." 10News San Diego, October 2025. https://www.10news.com/americavotes/californias-proposition-50-faces-potential-legal-battles-if-voters-approve-redistricting-measure

  23. "2025 California Proposition 50." Wikipedia, October 30, 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_California_Proposition_50

  24. "How big a deal is California's Proposition 50?" UCLA Law, 2025. https://law.ucla.edu/news/how-big-deal-californias-proposition-50

  25. "California Proposition 50, Use of Legislative Congressional Redistricting Map Amendment (2025)." Ballotpedia. https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_50,Use_of_Legislative_Congressional_Redistricting_Map_Amendment(2025)

  26. "Federal Court Tosses Another GOP Lawsuit Against California's Redistricting Plan." Democracy Docket, October 24, 2025. https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/federal-court-tosses-gop-lawsuit-against-californias-redistricting-plan/

  27. "California GOP sues to block the redistricting measure Proposition 50." LAist, September 8, 2025. https://laist.com/news/politics/california-gop-sues-to-block-the-redistricting-measure-proposition-50

  28. "EXCLUSIVE: California Commissioner Says Lawmakers Gutted Their Funding BEFORE Prop 50." Independent Voter News, October 8, 2025. https://ivn.us/posts/exclusive-california-commissioner-says-lawmakers-gutted-their-funding-prop-50-2025-10-08

  29. "Newsom's Prop 50 ballot text admits partisan revenge, may face legal hurdles." Just The News, October 27, 2025. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/newsoms-prop-50-ballot-text-spells-partisan-revenge

  30. "California's Redistricting Commission is divided over Prop 50." California Politics 360/KCRA, October 28, 2025. https://www.kcra.com/article/california-redistricting-commission-divided-prop-50-california-politics-360/69152792

 

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