No One Wants the Job: Newsom Heads To Exit Stage Right

Opinion: California's existential issues scare off top candidates for governor

California's Governorship Crisis Signals End of an Era

The Epoch Times Staff

January 30, 2026

TL;DR

California's 2026 gubernatorial race has become a political wasteland as top candidates from both parties decline to run. Democrats including Kamala Harris, Rob Bonta, and Alex Padilla have passed. Republicans;lacking a credible moderate after Kevin Faulconer stayed out;field only pro-Trump candidates with no realistic path to victory. The bipartisan retreat reflects California's transformation from national political trendsetter to cautionary tale, burdened by intractable crises in housing, homelessness, education, and fiscal stability. Governor Newsom leads 2028 presidential polls but faces the paradox that California's visible dysfunction undermines his central credential. The state that once gained six congressional seats per decade lost one in 2020 and may lose four more by 2030;a stunning reversal that signals the end of California's era as the Democratic Party's political and policy engine.

SACRAMENTO;In a state that once produced presidents and set the national political agenda, California's 2026 gubernatorial race has exposed an uncomfortable truth: nobody with serious credentials wants the job. Not Democrats. Not Republicans. Not even the billionaires.

As Governor Gavin Newsom prepares his exit after eight years managing the world's fifth-largest economy, the scramble to succeed him has become less a competition among California's political elite than a referendum on whether the state has become ungovernable. The convergence of housing shortages, homelessness, fiscal deficits, failing schools, and population exodus has created what longtime political columnist Dan Walters calls “a daunting array of potentially intractable issues; that appear to have scared off the state's most viable leaders from both major parties.

The Democratic Exodus: Top Tier Declines to Run

The Democratic field has winnowed through a series of high-profile withdrawals that would have been unthinkable in previous decades. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, fresh from her presidential loss, never seriously explored a return to Sacramento. U.S. Senator Alex Padilla, with statewide name recognition and fundraising capacity, stayed out. Attorney General Rob Bonta initially explored a run before announcing in January 2026 he would seek reelection to his current post rather than pursue the governorship.

Most recently, billionaire developer Rick Caruso;who ran credibly for Los Angeles mayor in 2022;announced he would not seek either the governorship or another mayoral bid. I am deeply disappointed to step back from an election I believe is so critical to California's future, Caruso stated, though his name would not appear on any ballot.

The vacuum has left a fragmented field of second-tier candidates: former U.S. Representative Katie Porter (who lost a Senate race in 2024), Representative Eric Swalwell, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (recently embroiled in a corruption scandal involving associates), State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who announced his candidacy January 29, 2026.

Recent polling shows the depth of voter uncertainty: 44% of surveyed voters had no preference for governor and no candidate polled above 15%. The extreme fragmentation raises Democratic concerns about California's top-two primary system, where the highest two vote-getters regardless of party advance to the general election.

The Republican Dilemma: Moderates Stay Home, MAGA Steps In

The Republican reluctance may be even more consequential. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer;who ran credible campaigns in both the 2021 recall election and 2022 primary;has not entered the 2026 race. Faulconer represented the GOP's best hope for crossover appeal: a moderate Republican with executive experience governing California's second-largest city, potentially capable of replicating Arnold Schwarzenegger's bipartisan success.

His absence leaves Republicans with candidates closely aligned with former President Donald Trump, who lost California by more than 20 percentage points in both 2020 and 2024. The two leading Republican contenders;Steve Hilton, a Fox News contributor and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, and Chad Bianco, the pro-Trump Riverside County Sheriff, face structural challenges appealing to an electorate where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one.

Recent polling shows Bianco leading with 13% support, followed by Hilton and Democrat Eric Swalwell at 12% each, though 31% of California voters remain undecided. Both Republican frontrunners are vocal Trump supporters. Hilton's campaign references the MAGA movement with a "make California golden again"; slogan and rolled out a first-day endorsement from Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the architects of Trump's DOGE initiative.

Hilton has characterized California as “the sick man of America,” arguing the state is “in a terrible, terrible mess” requiring radical change. Bianco has focused on criticizing Democratic governance, advocating for loosening business regulations and overturning California's sanctuary law restricting local police cooperation with federal deportation officers.

Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta told CalMatters that while Republicans have legitimate policy fodder, candidates so closely tied to Trump face insurmountable obstacles. “The Republicans have a lot of fodder if they did it the right way,” Acosta said, but added regarding Trump-aligned candidates: “There's zero chance of these Republicans.”

The structural challenges remain formidable. Republicans have not won a statewide race in California since 2006 and have not held statewide office since 2011. In 2022, no Republican candidate for statewide office came within 10 percentage points of victory, and most lost by about twice that margin.

The Six Existential Crises Driving Candidates Away

California faces what Walters identifies as six interconnected existential challenges that have persistently defied resolution over 25 years:

Housing and Homelessness

California's housing shortage has reached crisis proportions, with median home prices exceeding $800,000 statewide and rental costs consuming upward of 50% of median income in major metropolitan areas. The shortage has contributed directly to the state's homelessness crisis, with an estimated 180,000 people experiencing homelessness on any given night—nearly one-third of the nation's total. Despite spending approximately $24 billion on homelessness programs since 2019, visible street encampments have expanded in major cities.

Fiscal Instability

Newsom's revised 2025-26 budget proposal, unveiled in May 2025, projected a $45 billion deficit, requiring significant cuts to education, healthcare, and infrastructure programs. The deficit reflects California's heavy reliance on income taxes from high earners, creating revenue volatility tied to stock market performance.

Education Underperformance

California ranks in the bottom third nationally for K-12 education outcomes despite per-pupil spending exceeding $17,000 annually. Proficiency rates in mathematics and reading lag behind national averages, with particularly stark disparities for low-income students and English learners.

Water Scarcity

Decades of drought, compounded by aging infrastructure and competing demands from agriculture, urban areas, and environmental protection, have created chronic water insecurity. The Colorado River compact, which supplies water to Southern California, faces renegotiation amid declining reservoir levels.

Energy Costs and Reliability

California's transition to renewable energy has resulted in some of the nation's highest electricity rates while reliability concerns persist. Gas prices are approximately 50% higher than the national average, and some predictions suggest prices could rise to $8 per gallon over the next three years. Rolling blackouts during peak demand periods and ongoing costs of wildfire prevention have strained household budgets and business competitiveness.

Poverty and Cost of Living

Despite a booming technology sector and substantial wealth concentration, California has the nation's highest poverty rate when adjusted for cost of living, with the Supplemental Poverty Measure at approximately 13.2%. Housing costs and other expenses overwhelm wage gains for lower-income residents.

Newsom's Paradox: Leading Presidential Polls While California Declines

Perhaps the most striking aspect of California's political moment is Governor Newsom's positioning for a 2028 presidential run even as the state's national standing crumbles. Recent polling shows Newsom leading Democratic primary contenders with 36% support in December 2025, up from 23% in August. In hypothetical general election matchups, he leads Vice President JD Vance by 3 percentage points.

Newsom's apparent strategy relies on positioning himself as Trump's primary antagonist, leveraging high-profile clashes over immigration enforcement, federal military deployments, and congressional redistricting. His national profile has grown through active engagement in Democratic politics, including visits to key primary states and sustained criticism of the Trump administration.

But this approach confronts a fundamental paradox: California's visible dysfunction undermines his central credential as a successful executive. Trump and Republicans have successfully weaponized California's crises, portraying the state as an example of failed progressive governance. The domestic migration crisis reinforces this narrative;California ranked last in the nation for net U-Haul move-ins for the fifth consecutive year in 2024, representing continued population exodus to red states.

Even California voters express skepticism about Newsom's national ambitions. A poll of California registered voters found 59% believe he should not run for president in 2028, with only 41% supporting a bid. Just 2% of voters nationally see Newsom as the face of the Democratic Party. Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told Newsweek that ;Few people have blown through goodwill with Democrats like Gavin Newsom, suggesting he has alienated many by shifting right while maintaining California's progressive reputation baggage.

California's Declining National Influence: The End of an Era

The bipartisan retreat from California's gubernatorial race reflects a deeper structural shift: the state's transformation from national political trendsetter to cautionary tale. California lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census;the first time since statehood. Projections suggest as voters vote with their feet that the state could lose as many as four more seats after the 2030 census, marking the largest single-decade loss in its history.

This represents a stunning reversal for a state that gained an average of six House seats per decade between 1950 and 1990. The shift reflects both California's population stagnation and explosive growth in Republican-leaning states. The loss of congressional representation directly translates to diminished Electoral College influence and reduced leverage in federal policy debates.

California's role as the Democratic Party's political and policy engine is ending. The state that once proved progressive governance could succeed at scale now serves as Republicans' primary exhibit of progressive failure. Swing state voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia see homelessness crises, unaffordable housing, population fleeing, energy costs spiraling, schools underperforming despite high spending, and budget deficits despite high taxes.

Newsom's counter-argument;that California's problems are complex, structural, and predate his tenure;may be analytically correct but is politically weak. Voters elect presidents to solve problems, not explain why problems are hard.

The Institutional Challenge: Why Smart Politicians Stay Out

California's next governor will inherit not just policy challenges but institutional constraints that limit executive authority. The state's complex web of ballot initiatives, many enshrining specific spending priorities or tax limitations into the constitution, reduces budgetary flexibility. Proposition 13's property tax limitations, enacted in 1978, continue to constrain revenue options. Public employee unions wield substantial political influence, making workforce reforms politically hazardous.

Environmental regulations, while popular with many Californians, add costs and delays to infrastructure projects and housing development. The state has lost roughly 35% of its refining capacity since the early 1980s, contributing to gasoline prices among the nation's highest. Recent refinery closures could reduce capacity by another 17%, potentially driving prices to $8 per gallon.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, the latest Democrat to enter the race, positioned himself as an outsider willing to challenge party orthodoxy. Mahan told the San Jose Mercury News that none of the remaining candidates had articulated;bold and independent leadership; needed to tackle the state's challenges. I see business as usual in Sacramento; Mahan said during a Capitol visit advocating for housing reforms. I don't see anyone acting like it's a crisis.

Walters' assessment is blunt: The question isn't whether California's next governor will be competent or well-intentioned. It's whether the state's political culture and institutional structure allow for the kind of decisive action these problems require. The fact that so many capable politicians have looked at this challenge and walked away suggests they've concluded the answer is no.

Apres Moi, Le Deluge

The French phrase attributed to Louis XV;"After me, the flood";captures California's current moment. This captured the dysfunctional state he left to his successor, ending in the French revolution. Newsom appears to be leaving California before the full consequences of decades of policy choices become undeniable, attempting to leverage his governorship before that reality fully sets in nationally.

The bipartisan nature of the gubernatorial retreat is particularly striking. Democrats who might have leveraged Trump administration policies as a rallying cry have declined to run. Republicans who might have capitalized on voter frustration with Democratic governance have stayed out, ceding the field to candidates whose Trump associations severely limit their statewide appeal.

The 2026 gubernatorial race will unfold against this backdrop of policy paralysis and political caution on both sides of the partisan divide. Whether second-tier candidates can offer genuinely transformative visions;or whether California's challenges have indeed become ungovernable;will become clearer as the June primary approaches.

What seems certain is that California's era as the nation's political laboratory and Democratic powerhouse has ended. The state once proved progressive policies could succeed at scale. Now it serves as a warning of what happens when governance fails to match ambition, when costs overwhelm benefits, and when political leaders conclude the problems have become too hard to solve.

Verified Sources and Citations

• Walters, Dan. "Opinion: California's existential issues scare off top candidates for governor." CalMatters, January 30, 2026. https://calmatters.org/commentary/2026/01/california-governor-race-candidates/

• "2026 California gubernatorial election." Wikipedia, accessed January 30, 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election

• "Who's running for California governor? Here's a look at the current field of candidates." CalMatters, December 2, 2025. https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/12/governors-race-current-field/

• "Republicans' chances of flipping California governor seat, according to polls." Newsweek, December 5, 2025.

• "California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Shakes Up Election for Governor." Emerson College Polling, December 17, 2025.

• "Republicans lead in four California governor race polls." Newsweek, November 14, 2025.

• Koseff, Alexei. "Can a Republican win the California governor's race in 2026?" CalMatters, April 22, 2025.

• "Gavin Newsom's Presidential Chances Get Major Boost." Newsweek, December 5, 2025.

• "August 2025 National Poll: Newsom Surges Ahead in 2028 Democratic Nomination Contest." Emerson Polling, August 29, 2025.

• "Gavin Newsom's Chances of Beating Kamala Harris in 2028." Newsweek, June 20, 2025.

• "Gavin Newsom's 2028 Hopes Dim According to New Poll." Newsweek, May 15, 2025.

• Coupal, Jon. "California's loss of political influence will prove to be a benefit to the rest of the nation." Orange County Register, February 4, 2025.

• "Historic Loss of Congressional Seats Looms Amidst California Redistricting Clash." The American Redistricting Project, July 22, 2025.

• "California In 2025: Another Bad Year Of Governance." Hoover Institution, December 5, 2025.

• U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. "2024 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress." February 2025.

• California Department of Finance. "Governor's Budget Summary 2025-26." May 2025.

• National Center for Education Statistics. "State Education Data Profiles: California." U.S. Department of Education, 2024.

• U.S. Census Bureau. "Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2024." September 2025.

• U.S. Census Bureau. "State-to-State Migration Flows: 2024." December 2025.

Note: This analysis draws on publicly available information, official government reports, and news coverage. The Epoch Times maintains editorial independence and seeks to provide comprehensive, factually accurate reporting on matters of public interest.