San Diego's Water Future: Supply, Demand, and Rising Rates

 


San Diego's Water Future: Supply, Demand, and Rising Rates

May 3, 2025

Water Security Amid Rising Costs: The San Diego Paradox

San Diego County finds itself in a paradoxical position in 2025: water secure but financially strained. Despite having sufficient water supplies for the foreseeable future, residents face steep rate hikes that threaten affordability for many households. This complex situation stems from decades of infrastructure investments, changing usage patterns, and the ongoing transition toward water independence.

Current Water Supply Situation

San Diego County currently has ample water to meet demands regardless of weather conditions, thanks to strategic investments and consecutive wet winters in 2023 and 2024. Water Authority Board Chair Nick Serrano confirmed, "San Diego County's water supply remains stable and reliable to support our region's people, economy, and quality of life."

The region's reservoirs are well-stocked, with member agency local surface water storage at approximately 287,000 acre-feet as of August 2024, which is 129% of the historical 10-year average. Additionally, the Water Authority had about 89,000 acre-feet available in emergency and carryover storage.

However, this security comes at a significant cost. The City of San Diego currently imports as much as 90% of its water, purchasing it from the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA), which in turn buys most of its water from the Metropolitan Water District.

Rate Increases: Present and Future

Water rates have seen substantial increases in recent years, and more are planned:

  • As of January 1, 2025, water rates increased overall by 8.7%, and wastewater rates increased by 3%.
  • An additional pass-through rate adjustment from the SDCWA of 5.5% will take effect on May 1, 2025.
  • Projections indicate water rates could soar more than 60% within 5 years under proposed hikes.

For the typical single-family home water customer, the monthly bill reached $90.67 after the January 2025 increase, with additional increases coming in May.

These rising costs have sparked tensions between local officials. San Diego City Council members delivered an "unprecedented public bashing" of the SDCWA in January 2025, with Councilmember Marni von Wilpert suggesting the city refuse to pay its water bills to the Authority due to contracts that require buying "water we're never going to drink."

Causes of Rate Increases

Several factors contribute to the rising costs:

  1. Infrastructure Investments: The region has invested approximately $3 billion in water security infrastructure over the past decade.
  2. Decreased Demand: Ironically, conservation success has created financial challenges. Both overall demand and per capita demand have decreased in San Diego due to water conservation measures, while the Water Authority built infrastructure for projected higher demand.
  3. Pass-through Costs: The 2025 rate increases are driven by passthrough costs that increase Water Authority rates 11% before accounting for internal factors.
  4. Agency Detachments: The detachment of the Fallbrook and Rainbow districts means millions of dollars in costs must be spread to other water districts in the Water Authority's service area.
  5. Pure Water Program Costs: San Diego's ambitious water recycling program requires significant upfront investment.

The Pure Water Program: Path to Independence

The City of San Diego's Pure Water Program represents the cornerstone of the region's water future. Pure Water San Diego is a phased, multi-year program that will provide nearly half of San Diego's water supply locally by the end of 2035.

When complete in 2025, the first phase will produce 34 million gallons per day of potable drinking water. A larger second phase, slated for completion in 2035, will add another 53 million gallons.

Together, the two phases are expected to shrink the share of San Diego's water that is imported from about 85% down to less than 50%.

The construction project includes new pump stations and conveyance systems, expansion of the existing North City Water Reclamation Plant, and improvements to the existing Miramar Reservoir Pump Station.

San Diego's Pure Water treatment system will be operational and providing seven million gallons of water a day to residents by 2026.

Water Usage Trends and Projections

Water usage patterns have changed dramatically in recent years:

  • A city analysis shows local water use dropped sharply from 81.5 billion gallons in 2007 to about 57 billion gallons in 2020, even as the city's population grew.
  • The region has "dramatically cut water demand, reducing per capita water use by more than 50% since 1990."
  • By 2045, when Pure Water is projected to be fully built and operational, imported water is projected to be 43% of the city's water supply, down from 83% currently.

These conservation successes have created the current paradox: decreased demand has left the region with excess infrastructure capacity that still needs to be paid for, while providing greater water security.

Future Outlook and Challenges

The region faces several challenges in balancing water security with affordability:

  1. Rate Stabilization Efforts: The Water Authority is selling limited amounts of water to other regional purveyors, using those funds to create a rate stabilization fund that may eventually help local ratepayers.
  2. Infrastructure Financing: The EPA has provided financing support, including a WIFIA loan that saves the City of San Diego an estimated $184 million compared to typical market financing.
  3. Climate Adaptation: Despite two abundant water years in a row, a changing climate and years of drought on the Colorado River continue to impact the San Diego region and the West, with hotter and drier conditions stressing water supplies.
  4. Forecasting Challenges: Water planners struggle to accurately project future demand, with critics arguing that the Water Authority has historically overestimated future needs.

What Residents Can Do

As rates continue to rise, residents can take several actions to manage costs:

  1. Conservation: The City suggests using water more efficiently, repairing leaks, and ensuring efficient plumbing fixtures and appliances. The Public Utilities Department offers tips, programs, and rebates to help save water.
  2. Winter Usage Monitoring: From November through April, the City monitors water usage for wastewater billing. By conserving water during this winter monitoring period, residents can lower their sewer rates.
  3. Rebate Programs: Various rebates are available for water-saving devices through the Water Conservation program.

Conclusion

San Diego stands at a critical juncture in its water history. After decades of investment in water security infrastructure, the region has achieved remarkable success in ensuring reliable supplies. However, the financial burden of these investments, combined with decreased demand, has created significant affordability challenges for residents.

As the Pure Water Program comes online and continues to expand, San Diego will increasingly transition from imported to local water sources, potentially providing long-term rate stability. In the near term, however, residents will continue to face rising costs while paradoxically having access to more secure water supplies than most of California.

The coming years will test the region's ability to balance the competing priorities of water security, infrastructure maintenance, and affordability for all San Diegans.

Sources

  1. City of San Diego. (2025, January 1). Rate Adjustments. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/public-utilities/customer-support/water-and-sewer-rates-increases
  2. San Diego County Water Authority. (2024, July 25). New Revenues, Budget Cuts Trim Wholesale Rate Increase for 2025. Retrieved from https://www.sdcwa.org/revenues-and-cuts-trim-rate-increase-for-2025/
  3. City of San Diego. (2025, January 1). Water Billing Rates. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/public-utilities/customer-service/water-and-sewer-rates/water
  4. City of San Diego. (2024, July 25). City of San Diego Lowers Proposed Water Rate Increase at County Water Authority. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/mayor/city-lowers-proposed-water-rate-increase
  5. Elmer, M. (2025, January 17). San Diego Council Bashes County Water Authority Over Costs. Voice of San Diego. Retrieved from https://voiceofsandiego.org/2025/01/17/san-diego-council-bashes-county-water-authority-over-costs/
  6. San Diego Union-Tribune. (2025, April 24). San Diego County water rate hikes won't be as painful as feared. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2025/04/24/san-diego-county-water-rate-hikes-wont-be-as-painful-as-feared/
  7. San Diego County Water Authority. (2024, October 1). San Diego Region Well-Prepared for Water Year 2025. Retrieved from https://www.sdcwa.org/san-diego-region-prepared-for-2025/
  8. San Diego Union-Tribune. (2024, December 13). Water rates could soar more than 60% within 5 years under proposed hikes. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/12/13/water-rates-could-soar-more-than-60-within-5-years-under-proposed-hikes/
  9. FOX 5/KUSI. (2024, April 27). Water rate hikes in San Diego County expected by 2025. Retrieved from https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/san-diego-county-water-authority-set-to-increase-rates/
  10. KPBS. (2025, March 13). Why It Matters: Why are San Diego water rates about to soar? Retrieved from https://www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2025/03/12/why-it-matters-why-are-san-diego-water-rates-about-to-soar
  11. City of San Diego. (2025). Pure Water San Diego. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/public-utilities/sustainability/pure-water-sd
  12. U.S. EPA. (2025, January 10). San Diego Pure Water San Diego Program Phase 1: North City Project. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/wifia/san-diego-pure-water-san-diego-program-phase-1-north-city-project
  13. U.S. EPA. (2020, January 31). Pure Water San Diego. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/wifia/pure-water-san-diego
  14. San Diego Union-Tribune. (2021, August 21). San Diego launching Pure Water, largest infrastructure project in city's history. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2021-08-20/san-diego-officially-launching-pure-water-largest-infrastructure-project-in-city-history
  15. City of San Diego. (2024, January). Pure Water San Diego Media Kit. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/pure_water_2023_media_kit.pdf
  16. City of San Diego. (2025). Phase 1 Projects. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/public-utilities/sustainability/pure-water-sd/phase-1-projects
  17. CBS 8. (2022). 'Pure Water San Diego' tour with EPA leaders and Mayor Gloria. Retrieved from https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/mayor-epa-leaders-tour-pure-water-san-diego-construction-project/509-1c92b037-5416-4971-8df2-a99ebc494e85
  18. Fessler, T. (2024, January 24). Divers to install one end of San Diego's pure water pipeline. KPBS. Retrieved from https://www.kpbs.org/news/science-technology/2024/01/03/divers-to-install-one-end-of-san-diegos-pure-water-pipeline
  19. Voice of San Diego. (2022, March 16). A Brief History of Pure Water's Pure Drama. Retrieved from https://voiceofsandiego.org/2019/09/17/a-brief-history-of-pure-waters-pure-drama/
  20. Smart Water Magazine. (2022, August 12). City of San Diego's Pure Water Program. Retrieved from https://smartwatermagazine.com/blogs/amy-dorman/city-san-diegos-pure-water-program
  21. San Diego County Water Authority. (2025, January 9). Water Use. Retrieved from https://www.sdcwa.org/your-water/water-use/
  22. San Diego Coastkeeper. (2021, August 17). Flaws in Forecasting San Diego's Water Demand. Retrieved from https://www.sdcoastkeeper.org/blog/san-diego-water-supply/flaws-in-forecasting-san-diegos-water-demand
  23. City of San Diego. (2025). Water Supply. Retrieved from https://www.sandiego.gov/public-utilities/sustainability/water-supply
  24. NPJ Clean Water. (2019). Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report. Retrieved from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41545-019-0039-9
  25. KPBS. (2025, April 2). San Diego has plenty of water now, and for the foreseeable future. Retrieved from https://www.kpbs.org/news/environment/2025/04/01/san-diego-has-plenty-water-now-foreseeable-future
  26. San Diego Union-Tribune. (2021, May 16). Water usage down sharply in San Diego, shrinking city's reliance on expensive imported supplies. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2021/05/16/water-usage-down-sharply-in-san-diego-shrinking-citys-reliance-on-expensive-imported-supplies/
  27. Water News Network. (2018, August 6). Efficiencies Lower Long-Term Water Demand Forecast for San Diego Region. Retrieved from https://www.waternewsnetwork.com/efficiencies-lower-long-term-water-demand-forecast-san-diego-region/

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